Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.
